Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 720 |
| Journal | ENERGIES |
| Volume | 17 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Publication status | Published - 2 Feb 2024 |
Abstract
Forecasts and their corresponding optimized operation plans for energy plants never match perfectly, especially if they have a horizon of several days. In this paper, we suggest a concept to cope with uncertain load forecasts by reserving a share of the energy storage system for short-term balancing. Depending on the amount of uncertainty in the load forecasts, we schedule the energy system with a specific reduced storage capacity at the day-ahead market. For the day of delivery, we examine the optimal thresholds when the remaining capacity should be used to balance differences between forecast and reality at the intraday market. With the help of a case study for a simple sector-coupled energy system with a demand for cooling, it is shown that the energy costs could be reduced by up to 10% using the optimal reserve share. The optimal reserve share depends on the forecast quality and the time series of loads and prices. Generally, the trends and qualitative results can be transferred to other systems. However, of course, an individual evaluation before the realization is recommended.
Keywords
- day-ahead and intraday energy market, energy management, energy storage system, multienergy system, uncertain load forecast
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Energy(all)
- Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Energy(all)
- Fuel Technology
- Engineering(all)
- Engineering (miscellaneous)
- Energy(all)
- Energy Engineering and Power Technology
- Energy(all)
- Energy (miscellaneous)
- Mathematics(all)
- Control and Optimization
- Engineering(all)
- Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: ENERGIES, Vol. 17, No. 3, 720, 02.02.2024.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Planning of Reserve Storage to Compensate for Forecast Errors
AU - Koch, Julian
AU - Bensmann, Astrid
AU - Eckert, Christoph
AU - Rath, Michael
AU - Hanke-Rauschenbach, Richard
N1 - Funding Information: M. Rath acknowledges the support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) within the WindNODE subproject “Construction, Integration, and Operation of a Power-to-Heat/Cold Plant at the EUREF-Campus with Showcase Function” (grant number 03SIN515), executed by GASAG Solution Plus GmbH, with funding provided as part of the project WindNODE, which is again part of the funding program “Intelligent Energy Showcase––Digital Agenda for the Energy Transition” (SINTEG, grant number 01171449/1).
PY - 2024/2/2
Y1 - 2024/2/2
N2 - Forecasts and their corresponding optimized operation plans for energy plants never match perfectly, especially if they have a horizon of several days. In this paper, we suggest a concept to cope with uncertain load forecasts by reserving a share of the energy storage system for short-term balancing. Depending on the amount of uncertainty in the load forecasts, we schedule the energy system with a specific reduced storage capacity at the day-ahead market. For the day of delivery, we examine the optimal thresholds when the remaining capacity should be used to balance differences between forecast and reality at the intraday market. With the help of a case study for a simple sector-coupled energy system with a demand for cooling, it is shown that the energy costs could be reduced by up to 10% using the optimal reserve share. The optimal reserve share depends on the forecast quality and the time series of loads and prices. Generally, the trends and qualitative results can be transferred to other systems. However, of course, an individual evaluation before the realization is recommended.
AB - Forecasts and their corresponding optimized operation plans for energy plants never match perfectly, especially if they have a horizon of several days. In this paper, we suggest a concept to cope with uncertain load forecasts by reserving a share of the energy storage system for short-term balancing. Depending on the amount of uncertainty in the load forecasts, we schedule the energy system with a specific reduced storage capacity at the day-ahead market. For the day of delivery, we examine the optimal thresholds when the remaining capacity should be used to balance differences between forecast and reality at the intraday market. With the help of a case study for a simple sector-coupled energy system with a demand for cooling, it is shown that the energy costs could be reduced by up to 10% using the optimal reserve share. The optimal reserve share depends on the forecast quality and the time series of loads and prices. Generally, the trends and qualitative results can be transferred to other systems. However, of course, an individual evaluation before the realization is recommended.
KW - day-ahead and intraday energy market
KW - energy management
KW - energy storage system
KW - multienergy system
KW - uncertain load forecast
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85184505994&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/en17030720
DO - 10.3390/en17030720
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85184505994
VL - 17
JO - ENERGIES
JF - ENERGIES
SN - 1996-1073
IS - 3
M1 - 720
ER -