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What Is Optimal Granularity When Estimating Reliability of a Complex Engineering Systems

Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceedingConference contributionResearchpeer review

Authors

  • Niklas Winnewisser
  • Michael Beer
  • Olga Kosheleva
  • Vladik Kreinovich

Research Organisations

External Research Organisations

  • University of Texas at El Paso

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIntegrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making - 11th International Symposium, IUKM 2025, Proceedings
EditorsVan-Nam Huynh, Katsuhiro Honda, Bac Le, Masahiro Inuiguchi, Hieu T. Huynh
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages76-84
Number of pages9
ISBN (electronic)978-981-96-4603-6
ISBN (print)9789819646029
Publication statusPublished - 24 Mar 2025
Event11th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2025 - Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Duration: 17 Mar 202519 Mar 2025

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science
Volume15586 LNAI
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (electronic)1611-3349

Abstract

For complex engineering systems, the usual way to estimate their reliability is to run simulations. If the resulting estimate does not satisfy the desired reliability level, we must replace some components with more reliable and again run simulations. This can take several iterations, so the required computation time often becomes unrealistically long. It is known that it is possible to speed up computations if components belong to a few types, and components of each type are identical. So, a natural idea to deal with the general case is to use the general granularity idea, i.e., to group components with similar reliability characteristics into a single cluster, and for each component from the cluster, use the same average reliability instead of the original (somewhat different) reliability characteristics. The accuracy of the resulting approximate estimate of the system’s reliability depends on how exactly we divide the components into clusters. It is therefore desirable to select the clustering that leads to the most accurate reliability estimate. In this paper, we describe an algorithm for such optimal clustering.

Keywords

    Clustering, Complex engineering systems, Optimal granules, Reliability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Cite this

What Is Optimal Granularity When Estimating Reliability of a Complex Engineering Systems. / Winnewisser, Niklas; Beer, Michael; Kosheleva, Olga et al.
Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making - 11th International Symposium, IUKM 2025, Proceedings. ed. / Van-Nam Huynh; Katsuhiro Honda; Bac Le; Masahiro Inuiguchi; Hieu T. Huynh. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2025. p. 76-84 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 15586 LNAI).

Research output: Chapter in book/report/conference proceedingConference contributionResearchpeer review

Winnewisser, N, Beer, M, Kosheleva, O & Kreinovich, V 2025, What Is Optimal Granularity When Estimating Reliability of a Complex Engineering Systems. in V-N Huynh, K Honda, B Le, M Inuiguchi & HT Huynh (eds), Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making - 11th International Symposium, IUKM 2025, Proceedings. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 15586 LNAI, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, pp. 76-84, 11th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2025, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam, 17 Mar 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-4603-6_7
Winnewisser, N., Beer, M., Kosheleva, O., & Kreinovich, V. (2025). What Is Optimal Granularity When Estimating Reliability of a Complex Engineering Systems. In V.-N. Huynh, K. Honda, B. Le, M. Inuiguchi, & H. T. Huynh (Eds.), Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making - 11th International Symposium, IUKM 2025, Proceedings (pp. 76-84). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 15586 LNAI). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-4603-6_7
Winnewisser N, Beer M, Kosheleva O, Kreinovich V. What Is Optimal Granularity When Estimating Reliability of a Complex Engineering Systems. In Huynh VN, Honda K, Le B, Inuiguchi M, Huynh HT, editors, Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making - 11th International Symposium, IUKM 2025, Proceedings. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2025. p. 76-84. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science). doi: 10.1007/978-981-96-4603-6_7
Winnewisser, Niklas ; Beer, Michael ; Kosheleva, Olga et al. / What Is Optimal Granularity When Estimating Reliability of a Complex Engineering Systems. Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making - 11th International Symposium, IUKM 2025, Proceedings. editor / Van-Nam Huynh ; Katsuhiro Honda ; Bac Le ; Masahiro Inuiguchi ; Hieu T. Huynh. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2025. pp. 76-84 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science).
Download
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abstract = "For complex engineering systems, the usual way to estimate their reliability is to run simulations. If the resulting estimate does not satisfy the desired reliability level, we must replace some components with more reliable and again run simulations. This can take several iterations, so the required computation time often becomes unrealistically long. It is known that it is possible to speed up computations if components belong to a few types, and components of each type are identical. So, a natural idea to deal with the general case is to use the general granularity idea, i.e., to group components with similar reliability characteristics into a single cluster, and for each component from the cluster, use the same average reliability instead of the original (somewhat different) reliability characteristics. The accuracy of the resulting approximate estimate of the system{\textquoteright}s reliability depends on how exactly we divide the components into clusters. It is therefore desirable to select the clustering that leads to the most accurate reliability estimate. In this paper, we describe an algorithm for such optimal clustering.",
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AU - Winnewisser, Niklas

AU - Beer, Michael

AU - Kosheleva, Olga

AU - Kreinovich, Vladik

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2025.

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