The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)

Margherita Harris

doi:10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6

Details

Original language	English
Article number	105
Number of pages	13
Journal	CLIMATIC CHANGE
Volume	178
Issue number	5
Publication status	Published - 14 May 2025

Abstract

In “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment,” Helgeson et al. present a mathematical model of the confidence-likelihood relationship in the IPCC uncertainty framework. Their goal is to resolve ambiguities in the framework and clarify the roles of “confidence" and “likelihood” in decision-making. In this paper, I provide a conceptual evaluation of their proposal. I argue that the IPCC cannot implement the model coherently and that adopting it could result in unclear and potentially misleading communication of uncertainty.

Keywords

Climate science, Confidence and likelihood, Decision theory, Imprecise probabilities, IPCC uncertainty framework

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Science(all)
Global and Planetary Change
Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
Atmospheric Science

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 13 - Climate Action

Cite this

The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t). / Harris, Margherita.
In: CLIMATIC CHANGE, Vol. 178, No. 5, 105, 14.05.2025.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › Research › peer review

Harris, M 2025, 'The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)', CLIMATIC CHANGE, vol. 178, no. 5, 105. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6

Harris, M. (2025). The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t). CLIMATIC CHANGE, 178(5), Article 105. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6

Harris M. The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t). CLIMATIC CHANGE. 2025 May 14;178(5):105. doi: 10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6

Harris, Margherita. / The IPCC uncertainty framework : what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t). In: CLIMATIC CHANGE. 2025 ; Vol. 178, No. 5.

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Research@Leibniz University