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The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftMeinungsbeitragForschungPeer-Review

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  • Margherita Harris

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OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer105
Seitenumfang13
FachzeitschriftCLIMATIC CHANGE
Jahrgang178
Ausgabenummer5
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 14 Mai 2025

Abstract

In “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment,” Helgeson et al. present a mathematical model of the confidence-likelihood relationship in the IPCC uncertainty framework. Their goal is to resolve ambiguities in the framework and clarify the roles of “confidence" and “likelihood” in decision-making. In this paper, I provide a conceptual evaluation of their proposal. I argue that the IPCC cannot implement the model coherently and that adopting it could result in unclear and potentially misleading communication of uncertainty.

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The IPCC uncertainty framework: what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t). / Harris, Margherita.
in: CLIMATIC CHANGE, Jahrgang 178, Nr. 5, 105, 14.05.2025.

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftMeinungsbeitragForschungPeer-Review

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