Details
Originalsprache | Englisch |
---|---|
Aufsatznummer | 105 |
Seitenumfang | 13 |
Fachzeitschrift | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
Jahrgang | 178 |
Ausgabenummer | 5 |
Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 14 Mai 2025 |
Abstract
In “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment,” Helgeson et al. present a mathematical model of the confidence-likelihood relationship in the IPCC uncertainty framework. Their goal is to resolve ambiguities in the framework and clarify the roles of “confidence" and “likelihood” in decision-making. In this paper, I provide a conceptual evaluation of their proposal. I argue that the IPCC cannot implement the model coherently and that adopting it could result in unclear and potentially misleading communication of uncertainty.
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Umweltwissenschaften (insg.)
- Globaler Wandel
- Erdkunde und Planetologie (insg.)
- Atmosphärenwissenschaften
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung
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in: CLIMATIC CHANGE, Jahrgang 178, Nr. 5, 105, 14.05.2025.
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Meinungsbeitrag › Forschung › Peer-Review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - The IPCC uncertainty framework
T2 - what some decision makers want (and why they shouldn’t)
AU - Harris, Margherita
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.
PY - 2025/5/14
Y1 - 2025/5/14
N2 - In “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment,” Helgeson et al. present a mathematical model of the confidence-likelihood relationship in the IPCC uncertainty framework. Their goal is to resolve ambiguities in the framework and clarify the roles of “confidence" and “likelihood” in decision-making. In this paper, I provide a conceptual evaluation of their proposal. I argue that the IPCC cannot implement the model coherently and that adopting it could result in unclear and potentially misleading communication of uncertainty.
AB - In “Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment,” Helgeson et al. present a mathematical model of the confidence-likelihood relationship in the IPCC uncertainty framework. Their goal is to resolve ambiguities in the framework and clarify the roles of “confidence" and “likelihood” in decision-making. In this paper, I provide a conceptual evaluation of their proposal. I argue that the IPCC cannot implement the model coherently and that adopting it could result in unclear and potentially misleading communication of uncertainty.
KW - Climate science
KW - Confidence and likelihood
KW - Decision theory
KW - Imprecise probabilities
KW - IPCC uncertainty framework
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105005118246&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6
DO - 10.1007/s10584-025-03931-6
M3 - Comment/debate
AN - SCOPUS:105005118246
VL - 178
JO - CLIMATIC CHANGE
JF - CLIMATIC CHANGE
SN - 0165-0009
IS - 5
M1 - 105
ER -