Doomed to fail? Why some land-based investment projects fail

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  • German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
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Original languageEnglish
Article number102268
JournalApplied geography
Volume122
Early online date4 Aug 2020
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2020

Abstract

In recent years, an increased interest in farmland globally has led to the emergence of many land-based investment projects. Although most projects enter the production stage, a significant number also ends in failure. This paper asks why land-based investment projects fail. This is a crucial question as failed investment projects are unlikely to have any positive impacts on the host regions. I develop a conceptual framework to understand the determinants of failure and then use project-level data to empirically test these potential determinants drawing on survival analysis. I find that failure occurs globally but is concentrated on the African continent, with some countries exhibiting a particularly high risk of project failure. In addition, larger projects, projects growing agrofuels, and projects targeting land formerly used by smallholders or pastoralists are more likely to fail. In contrast, projects that involve domestic investors or take place in countries with better infrastructure are less likely to fail. The findings on the impact of host-country institutions on project failure are ambiguous and highlight the need for more localized institutional variables to better understand the role of institutions for project failure.

Keywords

    Farm survival, Land-based investments, Large-scale land acquisitions, Survival analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Sustainable Development Goals

Cite this

Doomed to fail? Why some land-based investment projects fail. / Nolte, Kerstin.
In: Applied geography, Vol. 122, 102268, 09.2020.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer review

Nolte K. Doomed to fail? Why some land-based investment projects fail. Applied geography. 2020 Sept;122:102268. Epub 2020 Aug 4. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102268
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