Analysis of the influence of climate change on the fatigue lifetime of offshore wind turbines using imprecise probabilities

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)275-289
Number of pages15
JournalWIND ENERGY
Volume24
Issue number3
Early online date20 Oct 2020
Publication statusPublished - 18 Feb 2021

Abstract

When discussing the connection of wind energy and climate change, normally, the potential of wind energy to reduce green house gas emissions is emphasised. Hence, effects of wind energy on climate change are analysed. However, what about the other direction? What is the impact of climate change on wind energy? Recently, the effect of a reversal in global terrestrial stilling,that is, an increase in global wind speeds in the last decade, on the wind energy production has been analysed. Certainly, knowledge about potential changes in energy production is essential to plan future energy supply. Nonetheless, at least similarly important is the effect on loads acting on wind turbines. Increasing loads due to higher wind speeds might reduce wind turbine lifetimes and yield higher costs. Moreover, especially for already existing turbines, it might even affect the structural reliability. Since the impact of climate change on wind turbine loads is largely unknown, it is studied in this work in more detail. For this purpose, different existing models for predicted changes in wind speed and air temperature and their uncertainties are used to forecast the environmental conditions an exemplary offshore wind turbine is exposed to. Subsequently, for this turbine, the lifetime fatigue damages are calculated for different prediction models. It is shown that the expected changes in lifetime fatigue damages are present but relatively small compared to other uncertainties in the fatigue damage calculation.

Keywords

    climate change, fatigue, imprecise probabilities, scattering environmental conditions, uncertainty, wind energy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Sustainable Development Goals

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Analysis of the influence of climate change on the fatigue lifetime of offshore wind turbines using imprecise probabilities. / Hübler, Clemens; Rolfes, Raimund.
In: WIND ENERGY, Vol. 24, No. 3, 18.02.2021, p. 275-289.

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