TY - JOUR

T1 - Efficient System Reliability Analysis for Layered Soil Slopes with Multiple Failure Modes Using Sequential Compounding Method

AU - Liao, Kang

AU - Wu, Yiping

AU - Miao, Fasheng

AU - Zhang, Longfei

AU - Beer, Michael

N1 - This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41977244 and 42007267). The first author is supported by China Scholarship Council (CSC) as a visiting scholar at the Leibniz University Hannover, under Grant No. 202006410089. All support is gratefully acknowledged.

PY - 2023/6

Y1 - 2023/6

N2 - Evaluating the system reliability of layered soil slopes is a challenging issue because multiple failure modes may be included along the slip surfaces, which makes the overall failure probability greater than any individual slip surface. In this paper, an efficient system reliability analysis concerning the layered soil slopes is conducted based on the sequential compounding method (SCM) that has the ability to compound multiple failure events into an equivalent event sequentially. First, the first order reliability method (FORM) is employed to quantify initial reliability indices and correlation coefficients among these failure modes. Subsequently, the SCM is used to calculate the equivalent reliability indices and correlation coefficients until the multiple failure events are reduced to a compound event, and then the system reliability of the slope is obtained accordingly. The application of the approach to probabilistic evaluation of layered slopes is illustrated by two typical examples, and the correctness is verified by a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The results show that the SCM can deliver accurate system failure probability and greatly improve the computational efficiency compared with the MCS, which is an advantageous and promising strategy in evaluating the system reliability of layered soil slopes.

AB - Evaluating the system reliability of layered soil slopes is a challenging issue because multiple failure modes may be included along the slip surfaces, which makes the overall failure probability greater than any individual slip surface. In this paper, an efficient system reliability analysis concerning the layered soil slopes is conducted based on the sequential compounding method (SCM) that has the ability to compound multiple failure events into an equivalent event sequentially. First, the first order reliability method (FORM) is employed to quantify initial reliability indices and correlation coefficients among these failure modes. Subsequently, the SCM is used to calculate the equivalent reliability indices and correlation coefficients until the multiple failure events are reduced to a compound event, and then the system reliability of the slope is obtained accordingly. The application of the approach to probabilistic evaluation of layered slopes is illustrated by two typical examples, and the correctness is verified by a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The results show that the SCM can deliver accurate system failure probability and greatly improve the computational efficiency compared with the MCS, which is an advantageous and promising strategy in evaluating the system reliability of layered soil slopes.

KW - First order reliability method (FORM)

KW - Layered soil slopes

KW - Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)

KW - Multiple failure modes

KW - Sequential compounding method (SCM)

KW - System reliability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85151746376&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1022

DO - 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1022

M3 - Article

VL - 9

JO - ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering

JF - ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering

SN - 2376-7642

IS - 2

M1 - 04023015

ER -