A new scenario free procedure to determine flood peak changes in the Harz Mountains in response to climate change projections

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Autoren

  • Marcus Beylich
  • Uwe Haberlandt
  • Frido Reinstorf

Externe Organisationen

  • Hochschule Magdeburg-Stendal
Forschungs-netzwerk anzeigen

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer101864
Seitenumfang18
FachzeitschriftJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Jahrgang54
Frühes Online-Datum28 Juni 2024
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Aug. 2024

Abstract

Study area: Six catchments of different hydrological characteristics in the Harz Mountains, Germany. Study focus: A new scenario free method for determining changes of flood peaks considering climate change is developed. Compared to existing methods, it accounts for heavy rainfall changes by a newly developed factor with two seasons and establishes a numerical relationship to a greater number of relevant climate predictors. For easier application, it is based on frequently available daily measurements. A functional test of the factor for heavy rainfall changes and its adjustment algorithm for the precipitation time series is performed. Using a regional AR5 ensemble, for the first time the error and the uncertainty of a new scenario free method are estimated and compared with an existing method. The new method is applied in the Harz Mountains, where the sensitivity of the region to different climate predictors is investigated. New hydrological insights for the region: The adjusting algorithm for precipitation is able to adjust the time series while maintaining mass balance. The new method has a lower error than the reference method, with better matches of changes in the median of the climate ensemble as well as the most ensemble members. In general, the uncertainty of the seasonal results is below the climate uncertainty of the AR5 ensemble. Regarding future flood peaks, the regional catchments are most sensitive to mean precipitation changes, followed by heavy rainfall changes especially in the winter season. Mean temperature changes are of minor significance, but the catchments characteristics are important. The new method can be recommended for assessments of climate change impacts on floods in low to average mountain regions in Germany and Europe.

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

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A new scenario free procedure to determine flood peak changes in the Harz Mountains in response to climate change projections. / Beylich, Marcus; Haberlandt, Uwe; Reinstorf, Frido.
in: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Jahrgang 54, 101864, 08.2024.

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Beylich, M., Haberlandt, U., & Reinstorf, F. (2024). A new scenario free procedure to determine flood peak changes in the Harz Mountains in response to climate change projections. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 54, Artikel 101864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101864
Beylich M, Haberlandt U, Reinstorf F. A new scenario free procedure to determine flood peak changes in the Harz Mountains in response to climate change projections. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 2024 Aug;54:101864. Epub 2024 Jun 28. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101864
Beylich, Marcus ; Haberlandt, Uwe ; Reinstorf, Frido. / A new scenario free procedure to determine flood peak changes in the Harz Mountains in response to climate change projections. in: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 2024 ; Jahrgang 54.
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