Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 101864 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Volume | 54 |
| Early online date | 28 Jun 2024 |
| Publication status | Published - Aug 2024 |
Abstract
Study area: Six catchments of different hydrological characteristics in the Harz Mountains, Germany. Study focus: A new scenario free method for determining changes of flood peaks considering climate change is developed. Compared to existing methods, it accounts for heavy rainfall changes by a newly developed factor with two seasons and establishes a numerical relationship to a greater number of relevant climate predictors. For easier application, it is based on frequently available daily measurements. A functional test of the factor for heavy rainfall changes and its adjustment algorithm for the precipitation time series is performed. Using a regional AR5 ensemble, for the first time the error and the uncertainty of a new scenario free method are estimated and compared with an existing method. The new method is applied in the Harz Mountains, where the sensitivity of the region to different climate predictors is investigated. New hydrological insights for the region: The adjusting algorithm for precipitation is able to adjust the time series while maintaining mass balance. The new method has a lower error than the reference method, with better matches of changes in the median of the climate ensemble as well as the most ensemble members. In general, the uncertainty of the seasonal results is below the climate uncertainty of the AR5 ensemble. Regarding future flood peaks, the regional catchments are most sensitive to mean precipitation changes, followed by heavy rainfall changes especially in the winter season. Mean temperature changes are of minor significance, but the catchments characteristics are important. The new method can be recommended for assessments of climate change impacts on floods in low to average mountain regions in Germany and Europe.
Keywords
- Climate change, Flood modeling, Heavy rain, Scenario free
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Environmental Science(all)
- Water Science and Technology
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol. 54, 101864, 08.2024.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - A new scenario free procedure to determine flood peak changes in the Harz Mountains in response to climate change projections
AU - Beylich, Marcus
AU - Haberlandt, Uwe
AU - Reinstorf, Frido
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors
PY - 2024/8
Y1 - 2024/8
N2 - Study area: Six catchments of different hydrological characteristics in the Harz Mountains, Germany. Study focus: A new scenario free method for determining changes of flood peaks considering climate change is developed. Compared to existing methods, it accounts for heavy rainfall changes by a newly developed factor with two seasons and establishes a numerical relationship to a greater number of relevant climate predictors. For easier application, it is based on frequently available daily measurements. A functional test of the factor for heavy rainfall changes and its adjustment algorithm for the precipitation time series is performed. Using a regional AR5 ensemble, for the first time the error and the uncertainty of a new scenario free method are estimated and compared with an existing method. The new method is applied in the Harz Mountains, where the sensitivity of the region to different climate predictors is investigated. New hydrological insights for the region: The adjusting algorithm for precipitation is able to adjust the time series while maintaining mass balance. The new method has a lower error than the reference method, with better matches of changes in the median of the climate ensemble as well as the most ensemble members. In general, the uncertainty of the seasonal results is below the climate uncertainty of the AR5 ensemble. Regarding future flood peaks, the regional catchments are most sensitive to mean precipitation changes, followed by heavy rainfall changes especially in the winter season. Mean temperature changes are of minor significance, but the catchments characteristics are important. The new method can be recommended for assessments of climate change impacts on floods in low to average mountain regions in Germany and Europe.
AB - Study area: Six catchments of different hydrological characteristics in the Harz Mountains, Germany. Study focus: A new scenario free method for determining changes of flood peaks considering climate change is developed. Compared to existing methods, it accounts for heavy rainfall changes by a newly developed factor with two seasons and establishes a numerical relationship to a greater number of relevant climate predictors. For easier application, it is based on frequently available daily measurements. A functional test of the factor for heavy rainfall changes and its adjustment algorithm for the precipitation time series is performed. Using a regional AR5 ensemble, for the first time the error and the uncertainty of a new scenario free method are estimated and compared with an existing method. The new method is applied in the Harz Mountains, where the sensitivity of the region to different climate predictors is investigated. New hydrological insights for the region: The adjusting algorithm for precipitation is able to adjust the time series while maintaining mass balance. The new method has a lower error than the reference method, with better matches of changes in the median of the climate ensemble as well as the most ensemble members. In general, the uncertainty of the seasonal results is below the climate uncertainty of the AR5 ensemble. Regarding future flood peaks, the regional catchments are most sensitive to mean precipitation changes, followed by heavy rainfall changes especially in the winter season. Mean temperature changes are of minor significance, but the catchments characteristics are important. The new method can be recommended for assessments of climate change impacts on floods in low to average mountain regions in Germany and Europe.
KW - Climate change
KW - Flood modeling
KW - Heavy rain
KW - Scenario free
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85196946450&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101864
DO - 10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101864
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85196946450
VL - 54
JO - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
JF - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
M1 - 101864
ER -