Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 283-293 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Journal of Applied Geodesy |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| Early online date | 1 Nov 2014 |
| Publication status | Published - 5 Dec 2014 |
Abstract
Deformation monitoring usually focuses on the detection of whether the monitored objects satisfy the given properties (e.g. being stable or not), and makes further decisions to minimise the risks, for example, the consequences and costs in case of collapse of artificial objects and/or natural hazards. With this intention, a methodology relying on hypothesis testing and utility theory is reviewed in this paper. The main idea of utility theory is to judge each possible outcome with a utility value. The presented methodology makes it possible to minimise the risk of an individual monitoring project by considering the costs and consequences of overall possible situations within the decision process. It is not the danger that the monitored object may collapse that can be reduced. The risk (based on the utility values multiplied by the danger) can be described more appropriately and therefore more valuable decisions can be made. Especially, the opportunity for the measurement process to minimise the risk is an important key issue. In this paper, application of the methodology to two of the classical cases in hypothesis testing will be discussed in detail: 1) both probability density functions (pdfs) of tested objects under null and alternative hypotheses are known; 2) only the pdf under the null hypothesis is known and the alternative hypothesis is treated as the pure negation of the null hypothesis. Afterwards, a practical example in deformation monitoring is introduced and analysed. Additionally, the way in which the magnitudes of utility values (consequences of a decision) influence the decision will be considered and discussed at the end.
Keywords
- decision making, deformation monitoring, hypothesis testing, risk analysis, utility theory
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Mathematics(all)
- Modelling and Simulation
- Engineering(all)
- Engineering (miscellaneous)
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
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In: Journal of Applied Geodesy, Vol. 8, No. 4, 05.12.2014, p. 283-293.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Utility Theory as a Method to Minimise the Risk in Deformation Analysis Decisions
AU - Zhang, Yin
AU - Neumann, Ingo
N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgement: The presented paper shows results and new ideas developed during the research project NE 1453/3-1, "Steering and Optimisation of Measurement Processes in Consideration of Cost Functions", which is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). This is gratefully acknowledged by the authors.
PY - 2014/12/5
Y1 - 2014/12/5
N2 - Deformation monitoring usually focuses on the detection of whether the monitored objects satisfy the given properties (e.g. being stable or not), and makes further decisions to minimise the risks, for example, the consequences and costs in case of collapse of artificial objects and/or natural hazards. With this intention, a methodology relying on hypothesis testing and utility theory is reviewed in this paper. The main idea of utility theory is to judge each possible outcome with a utility value. The presented methodology makes it possible to minimise the risk of an individual monitoring project by considering the costs and consequences of overall possible situations within the decision process. It is not the danger that the monitored object may collapse that can be reduced. The risk (based on the utility values multiplied by the danger) can be described more appropriately and therefore more valuable decisions can be made. Especially, the opportunity for the measurement process to minimise the risk is an important key issue. In this paper, application of the methodology to two of the classical cases in hypothesis testing will be discussed in detail: 1) both probability density functions (pdfs) of tested objects under null and alternative hypotheses are known; 2) only the pdf under the null hypothesis is known and the alternative hypothesis is treated as the pure negation of the null hypothesis. Afterwards, a practical example in deformation monitoring is introduced and analysed. Additionally, the way in which the magnitudes of utility values (consequences of a decision) influence the decision will be considered and discussed at the end.
AB - Deformation monitoring usually focuses on the detection of whether the monitored objects satisfy the given properties (e.g. being stable or not), and makes further decisions to minimise the risks, for example, the consequences and costs in case of collapse of artificial objects and/or natural hazards. With this intention, a methodology relying on hypothesis testing and utility theory is reviewed in this paper. The main idea of utility theory is to judge each possible outcome with a utility value. The presented methodology makes it possible to minimise the risk of an individual monitoring project by considering the costs and consequences of overall possible situations within the decision process. It is not the danger that the monitored object may collapse that can be reduced. The risk (based on the utility values multiplied by the danger) can be described more appropriately and therefore more valuable decisions can be made. Especially, the opportunity for the measurement process to minimise the risk is an important key issue. In this paper, application of the methodology to two of the classical cases in hypothesis testing will be discussed in detail: 1) both probability density functions (pdfs) of tested objects under null and alternative hypotheses are known; 2) only the pdf under the null hypothesis is known and the alternative hypothesis is treated as the pure negation of the null hypothesis. Afterwards, a practical example in deformation monitoring is introduced and analysed. Additionally, the way in which the magnitudes of utility values (consequences of a decision) influence the decision will be considered and discussed at the end.
KW - decision making
KW - deformation monitoring
KW - hypothesis testing
KW - risk analysis
KW - utility theory
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84916603122&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1515/jag-2014-0012
DO - 10.1515/jag-2014-0012
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84916603122
VL - 8
SP - 283
EP - 293
JO - Journal of Applied Geodesy
JF - Journal of Applied Geodesy
SN - 1862-9016
IS - 4
ER -