Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | L1-L6 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters |
| Volume | 537 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Early online date | 19 Nov 2024 |
| Publication status | Published - Feb 2025 |
Abstract
Over the past decade and a half, adoption of Bayesian inference in pulsar timing analysis has led to increasingly sophisticated models. The recent announcement of evidence for a stochastic background of gravitational waves by various pulsar timing array (PTA) projects highlighted Bayesian inference as a central tool for parameter estimation and model selection. Despite its success, Bayesian inference is occasionally misused in the pulsar timing community. A common workflow is that the data is analysed in multiple steps: a first analysis of single pulsars individually, and a subsequent analysis of the whole array of pulsars. A mistake that is then sometimes introduced stems from using the posterior distribution to craft the prior for the analysis of the same data in a second step, a practice referred to in the statistics literature as ‘circular analysis’. This is done to prune the model for computational efficiency. Multiple recent high-profile searches for gravitational waves by PTA projects have this workflow. This letter highlights this error and suggests that Spike and Slab priors can be used to carry out model averaging instead of model selection in a single pass. Spike and Slab priors are proved to be equal to log-uniform priors.
Keywords
- gravitational waves, methods: data analysis, methods: statistical
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Physics and Astronomy(all)
- Astronomy and Astrophysics
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- Space and Planetary Science
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In: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters, Vol. 537, No. 1, 02.2025, p. L1-L6.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Use model averaging instead of model selection in pulsar timing
AU - van Haasteren, Rutger
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Astronomical Society.
PY - 2025/2
Y1 - 2025/2
N2 - Over the past decade and a half, adoption of Bayesian inference in pulsar timing analysis has led to increasingly sophisticated models. The recent announcement of evidence for a stochastic background of gravitational waves by various pulsar timing array (PTA) projects highlighted Bayesian inference as a central tool for parameter estimation and model selection. Despite its success, Bayesian inference is occasionally misused in the pulsar timing community. A common workflow is that the data is analysed in multiple steps: a first analysis of single pulsars individually, and a subsequent analysis of the whole array of pulsars. A mistake that is then sometimes introduced stems from using the posterior distribution to craft the prior for the analysis of the same data in a second step, a practice referred to in the statistics literature as ‘circular analysis’. This is done to prune the model for computational efficiency. Multiple recent high-profile searches for gravitational waves by PTA projects have this workflow. This letter highlights this error and suggests that Spike and Slab priors can be used to carry out model averaging instead of model selection in a single pass. Spike and Slab priors are proved to be equal to log-uniform priors.
AB - Over the past decade and a half, adoption of Bayesian inference in pulsar timing analysis has led to increasingly sophisticated models. The recent announcement of evidence for a stochastic background of gravitational waves by various pulsar timing array (PTA) projects highlighted Bayesian inference as a central tool for parameter estimation and model selection. Despite its success, Bayesian inference is occasionally misused in the pulsar timing community. A common workflow is that the data is analysed in multiple steps: a first analysis of single pulsars individually, and a subsequent analysis of the whole array of pulsars. A mistake that is then sometimes introduced stems from using the posterior distribution to craft the prior for the analysis of the same data in a second step, a practice referred to in the statistics literature as ‘circular analysis’. This is done to prune the model for computational efficiency. Multiple recent high-profile searches for gravitational waves by PTA projects have this workflow. This letter highlights this error and suggests that Spike and Slab priors can be used to carry out model averaging instead of model selection in a single pass. Spike and Slab priors are proved to be equal to log-uniform priors.
KW - gravitational waves
KW - methods: data analysis
KW - methods: statistical
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85216071998&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/mnrasl/slae108
DO - 10.1093/mnrasl/slae108
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85216071998
VL - 537
SP - L1-L6
JO - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters
JF - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters
IS - 1
ER -