Details
Original language | English |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 9705-9718 |
Number of pages | 14 |
Journal | IEEE ACCESS |
Volume | 12 |
Early online date | 11 Jan 2024 |
Publication status | Published - 22 Jan 2024 |
Abstract
Planned times for the throughput of production are key components to production planners for determining delivery dates with customers, capacity planning, scheduling and order coordination. While traditional estimation methods often rely on basic statistics and expert knowledge, data mining respectively machine learning offers the potential to compute more precise predictions for order-specific planned throughput times. Factors that lead to deviations from the plan are diverse and thus challenging to consider in the various production planning tasks along the order fulfilment process. Intelligent throughput time predictions promise a remedy. Yet, predictive models are often not designed to be practically applicable due to a lack of consideration of the various characteristics of each stage of the order fulfilment process. To address this gap, this paper takes a closer look at the prediction of throughput times for the various stages of order fulfilment. Based on the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining, the characteristics of the individual steps to build a prediction model are elaborated with a focus and business and data understanding and then examined in a case study. From that, practical implications are derived and guidance for practitioners is given. A key finding is that predictions are less accurate in the early stages of order fulfillment. Prediction quality naturally enhances over time, since more and more order details are known. In conclusion, an iterative prediction process with an evolving database ensures good prediction quality, especially in the late stages of order fulfillment.
Keywords
- Capacity planning, data analysis, Job shop scheduling, machine learning, Predictive models, Procurement, Production, Production planning, Task analysis, Throughput, throughput time prediction
ASJC Scopus subject areas
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In: IEEE ACCESS, Vol. 12, 22.01.2024, p. 9705-9718.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Throughput Time Predictions Along the Order Fulfilment Process
AU - Hiller, Tobias
AU - Demke, Tabea Marie
AU - Nyhuis, Peter
PY - 2024/1/22
Y1 - 2024/1/22
N2 - Planned times for the throughput of production are key components to production planners for determining delivery dates with customers, capacity planning, scheduling and order coordination. While traditional estimation methods often rely on basic statistics and expert knowledge, data mining respectively machine learning offers the potential to compute more precise predictions for order-specific planned throughput times. Factors that lead to deviations from the plan are diverse and thus challenging to consider in the various production planning tasks along the order fulfilment process. Intelligent throughput time predictions promise a remedy. Yet, predictive models are often not designed to be practically applicable due to a lack of consideration of the various characteristics of each stage of the order fulfilment process. To address this gap, this paper takes a closer look at the prediction of throughput times for the various stages of order fulfilment. Based on the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining, the characteristics of the individual steps to build a prediction model are elaborated with a focus and business and data understanding and then examined in a case study. From that, practical implications are derived and guidance for practitioners is given. A key finding is that predictions are less accurate in the early stages of order fulfillment. Prediction quality naturally enhances over time, since more and more order details are known. In conclusion, an iterative prediction process with an evolving database ensures good prediction quality, especially in the late stages of order fulfillment.
AB - Planned times for the throughput of production are key components to production planners for determining delivery dates with customers, capacity planning, scheduling and order coordination. While traditional estimation methods often rely on basic statistics and expert knowledge, data mining respectively machine learning offers the potential to compute more precise predictions for order-specific planned throughput times. Factors that lead to deviations from the plan are diverse and thus challenging to consider in the various production planning tasks along the order fulfilment process. Intelligent throughput time predictions promise a remedy. Yet, predictive models are often not designed to be practically applicable due to a lack of consideration of the various characteristics of each stage of the order fulfilment process. To address this gap, this paper takes a closer look at the prediction of throughput times for the various stages of order fulfilment. Based on the Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining, the characteristics of the individual steps to build a prediction model are elaborated with a focus and business and data understanding and then examined in a case study. From that, practical implications are derived and guidance for practitioners is given. A key finding is that predictions are less accurate in the early stages of order fulfillment. Prediction quality naturally enhances over time, since more and more order details are known. In conclusion, an iterative prediction process with an evolving database ensures good prediction quality, especially in the late stages of order fulfillment.
KW - Capacity planning
KW - data analysis
KW - Job shop scheduling
KW - machine learning
KW - Predictive models
KW - Procurement
KW - Production
KW - Production planning
KW - Task analysis
KW - Throughput
KW - throughput time prediction
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85182936125&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3353029
DO - 10.1109/ACCESS.2024.3353029
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85182936125
VL - 12
SP - 9705
EP - 9718
JO - IEEE ACCESS
JF - IEEE ACCESS
SN - 2169-3536
ER -