The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer review

Authors

  • Kathleen Brüssow
  • Christoph Gornott
  • Anja Faße
  • Ulrike Grote

External Research Organisations

  • Technical University of Munich (TUM)
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)545-563
Number of pages19
JournalClimatic change
Volume157
Issue number3-4
Publication statusPublished - 2 Dec 2019

Abstract

Farmers’ subjective perceptions of climatic changes are not always in line with historic climate observations. Adaptation decisions based on these perceptions thus remain controversial. The paper therefore relates to the following questions: First, what are farmers’ perceptions of climatic changes? Second, do they correlate with observations from climatic data? Third, how do farmers respond and what are the factors determining adaptation? The analysis is based on household survey data from a sample of 900 farmers in rural Tanzania and secondary data from local meteorological stations. We find that farmers’ perception of a rising average temperature over time is generally confirmed. This is not the case for rainfall: farmers perceive that annual rainfall amount decreased, while climate data rather shows no change in the amount, but indicates a change in the rainfall pattern. However, we do find only a weak link between farmers’ perception and their behavior. Although farmers perceive climatic changes to happen and to affect them, some choose to not adapt at all and many only react in an evasive way, i.e., by coping measures that will not protect their household from future damage. Only a small share of farmers chose investment-intensive long-term strategies such as irrigation systems. Results confirm that a limited adaptive capacity plays a role, but also reveal the intention to adapt as a relevant factor. This is represented by the farmers’ loss experience due to climatic shocks and personality traits. This approach gives a more complete picture of the farmers’ adaptation decision.

Keywords

    Adaptation, Climatic changes, Tanzania

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Cite this

The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania. / Brüssow, Kathleen; Gornott, Christoph; Faße, Anja et al.
In: Climatic change, Vol. 157, No. 3-4, 02.12.2019, p. 545-563.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer review

Brüssow K, Gornott C, Faße A, Grote U. The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania. Climatic change. 2019 Dec 2;157(3-4):545-563. doi: 10.1007/s10584-019-02581-9
Brüssow, Kathleen ; Gornott, Christoph ; Faße, Anja et al. / The link between smallholders’ perception of climatic changes and adaptation in Tanzania. In: Climatic change. 2019 ; Vol. 157, No. 3-4. pp. 545-563.
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