Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 04024025 |
| Number of pages | 14 |
| Journal | ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| Early online date | 28 Mar 2024 |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 28 Mar 2024 |
Abstract
Resilience analysis of civil structures and infrastructure systems is a powerful approach to quantifying an object's ability to prepare for, recover from, and adapt to disruptive events. The resilience is typically measured probabilistically by the integration of the time-variant performance function, which is by nature a stochastic process as it is affected by many uncertain factors such as hazard occurrences and posthazard recoveries. Resilience evaluation could be challenging in many cases with imprecise probability information on the time-variant performance function. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of imprecise resilience is presented, which deals with resilience problems with nonprobabilistic performance function. The proposed method, producing lower and upper bounds for imprecise resilience, has benefited from that for imprecise reliability as documented in the literature, motivated by the similarity between reliability and resilience. Two types of stochastic processes, namely log-Gamma and lognormal processes, are employed to model the performance function, with which the explicit form of resilience is derived. Moreover, for a planning horizon within which the hazards may occur for multiple times, the incompletely informed performance function results in "time-dependent imprecise resilience,"which is dependent on the duration of the service period (e.g., life cycle) and can also be handled by applying the proposed method. Through examining the time-dependent resilience of a strip foundation in a coastal area subjected to groundwater intrusion in a changing climate, the applicability of the proposed resilience bounding method is demonstrated. The impact of imprecise probability information on resilience is quantified through sensitivity analysis.
Keywords
- Climate change, Imprecise information, Imprecise resilience, Performance function, Resilience bounding, Time-dependent resilience
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Engineering(all)
- Civil and Structural Engineering
- Engineering(all)
- Building and Construction
- Engineering(all)
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 2, 04024025, 01.06.2024.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Resilience Assessment under Imprecise Probability
AU - Wang, Cao
AU - Beer, Michael
AU - Faes, Matthias G.R.
AU - Feng, De Cheng
N1 - Funding Information: The research described in this paper was supported by the Career Development Fellowship for Cao Wang from the University of Wollongong. This support is gratefully acknowledged.
PY - 2024/3/28
Y1 - 2024/3/28
N2 - Resilience analysis of civil structures and infrastructure systems is a powerful approach to quantifying an object's ability to prepare for, recover from, and adapt to disruptive events. The resilience is typically measured probabilistically by the integration of the time-variant performance function, which is by nature a stochastic process as it is affected by many uncertain factors such as hazard occurrences and posthazard recoveries. Resilience evaluation could be challenging in many cases with imprecise probability information on the time-variant performance function. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of imprecise resilience is presented, which deals with resilience problems with nonprobabilistic performance function. The proposed method, producing lower and upper bounds for imprecise resilience, has benefited from that for imprecise reliability as documented in the literature, motivated by the similarity between reliability and resilience. Two types of stochastic processes, namely log-Gamma and lognormal processes, are employed to model the performance function, with which the explicit form of resilience is derived. Moreover, for a planning horizon within which the hazards may occur for multiple times, the incompletely informed performance function results in "time-dependent imprecise resilience,"which is dependent on the duration of the service period (e.g., life cycle) and can also be handled by applying the proposed method. Through examining the time-dependent resilience of a strip foundation in a coastal area subjected to groundwater intrusion in a changing climate, the applicability of the proposed resilience bounding method is demonstrated. The impact of imprecise probability information on resilience is quantified through sensitivity analysis.
AB - Resilience analysis of civil structures and infrastructure systems is a powerful approach to quantifying an object's ability to prepare for, recover from, and adapt to disruptive events. The resilience is typically measured probabilistically by the integration of the time-variant performance function, which is by nature a stochastic process as it is affected by many uncertain factors such as hazard occurrences and posthazard recoveries. Resilience evaluation could be challenging in many cases with imprecise probability information on the time-variant performance function. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of imprecise resilience is presented, which deals with resilience problems with nonprobabilistic performance function. The proposed method, producing lower and upper bounds for imprecise resilience, has benefited from that for imprecise reliability as documented in the literature, motivated by the similarity between reliability and resilience. Two types of stochastic processes, namely log-Gamma and lognormal processes, are employed to model the performance function, with which the explicit form of resilience is derived. Moreover, for a planning horizon within which the hazards may occur for multiple times, the incompletely informed performance function results in "time-dependent imprecise resilience,"which is dependent on the duration of the service period (e.g., life cycle) and can also be handled by applying the proposed method. Through examining the time-dependent resilience of a strip foundation in a coastal area subjected to groundwater intrusion in a changing climate, the applicability of the proposed resilience bounding method is demonstrated. The impact of imprecise probability information on resilience is quantified through sensitivity analysis.
KW - Climate change
KW - Imprecise information
KW - Imprecise resilience
KW - Performance function
KW - Resilience bounding
KW - Time-dependent resilience
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85189328320&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1244
DO - 10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1244
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85189328320
VL - 10
JO - ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
JF - ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering
SN - 2376-7642
IS - 2
M1 - 04024025
ER -