Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 102295 |
| Number of pages | 23 |
| Journal | European Journal of Political Economy |
| Volume | 77 |
| Early online date | 10 Sept 2022 |
| Publication status | Published - Mar 2023 |
Abstract
This paper investigates the effect of information about cross-country ratings of the government's and the public's reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic on consumers’ macroeconomic expectations and sentiment. We conduct consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in two waves in Thailand and Vietnam. The information treatments have the strongest effect when the information shown contradicts consumers’ prior beliefs. In the first survey, conducted when the first lockdown was eased, treatment effects are stronger in Vietnam, causing more optimistic expectations and sentiment. In the second survey, conducted at the start of the second wave of infections, treatment effects are stronger in Thailand, causing a more pessimistic outlook.
Keywords
- Belief updating, Consumer sentiment, COVID-19, Macroeconomic expectations, Randomized control trial (RCT), Survey experiment, Thailand, Vietnam
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
- Economics and Econometrics
- Social Sciences(all)
- Political Science and International Relations
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In: European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 77, 102295, 03.2023.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Macroeconomic expectations and consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic
T2 - The role of others’ beliefs
AU - Bui, Dzung
AU - Dräger, Lena
AU - Hayo, Bernd
AU - Nghiem, Giang
N1 - Funding Information: We thank the editor as well as three anonymous referees for valuable comments that helped improve the paper. We also thank Carola Binder, Michael Ehrmann, Tobin Hanspal, Baptiste Massenot, Michael Weber, Stephan Thomsen and Lisa Spantig for helpful comments. We thank Long Giang for providing Vietnamese data used to calculate demographic statistics as benchmarks for the population weights. In addition, we thank seminar participants at the Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) and the Leibniz University Hannover, as well as participants of the 26th IIF Workshop: Economic Forecasting in Times of Covid-19, the 8th International Conference on Applied Research in Economics, the 11th ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data, German Economic Association Annual Congress 2021, European Economic Association Annual Congress 2021, and the International TVSEP Conference on “Shocks and Resilience in Rural Southeast Asia” 2022 for comments and suggestions.
PY - 2023/3
Y1 - 2023/3
N2 - This paper investigates the effect of information about cross-country ratings of the government's and the public's reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic on consumers’ macroeconomic expectations and sentiment. We conduct consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in two waves in Thailand and Vietnam. The information treatments have the strongest effect when the information shown contradicts consumers’ prior beliefs. In the first survey, conducted when the first lockdown was eased, treatment effects are stronger in Vietnam, causing more optimistic expectations and sentiment. In the second survey, conducted at the start of the second wave of infections, treatment effects are stronger in Thailand, causing a more pessimistic outlook.
AB - This paper investigates the effect of information about cross-country ratings of the government's and the public's reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic on consumers’ macroeconomic expectations and sentiment. We conduct consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in two waves in Thailand and Vietnam. The information treatments have the strongest effect when the information shown contradicts consumers’ prior beliefs. In the first survey, conducted when the first lockdown was eased, treatment effects are stronger in Vietnam, causing more optimistic expectations and sentiment. In the second survey, conducted at the start of the second wave of infections, treatment effects are stronger in Thailand, causing a more pessimistic outlook.
KW - Belief updating
KW - Consumer sentiment
KW - COVID-19
KW - Macroeconomic expectations
KW - Randomized control trial (RCT)
KW - Survey experiment
KW - Thailand
KW - Vietnam
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85138204409&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102295
DO - 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102295
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85138204409
VL - 77
JO - European Journal of Political Economy
JF - European Journal of Political Economy
SN - 0176-2680
M1 - 102295
ER -