Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Aufsatznummer | 1262 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Scientific data |
| Jahrgang | 11 |
| Ausgabenummer | 1 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 21 Nov. 2024 |
| Extern publiziert | Ja |
Abstract
Due to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded – at least temporarily – in the 21 st century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood. Earth System Model climate projections are only available for a very limited number of overshoot pathways, thereby preventing comprehensive analysis of their impacts. Here, we address this issue by presenting a novel dataset of spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways. The dataset was created using the FaIR and MESMER emulators. First, FaIR was employed to translate ten different emission scenarios, including seven that are characterised by overshoot, into a large ensemble of forced global mean temperatures. These global mean temperatures were then converted into stochastic ensembles of local annual temperature fields using MESMER. To ensure an optimal tradeoff between accurate characterization of the ensemble spread and storage requirements for large ensembles, this procedure was accompanied by testing the sensitivity of sample quantiles to different ensemble sizes. The resulting dataset offers the unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including the timing and magnitude of temperature thresholds exceedance.
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Mathematik (insg.)
- Statistik und Wahrscheinlichkeit
- Informatik (insg.)
- Information systems
- Sozialwissenschaften (insg.)
- Ausbildung bzw. Denomination
- Informatik (insg.)
- Angewandte Informatik
- Entscheidungswissenschaften (insg.)
- Statistik, Wahrscheinlichkeit und Ungewissheit
- Sozialwissenschaften (insg.)
- Bibliotheks- und Informationswissenschaften
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in: Scientific data, Jahrgang 11, Nr. 1, 1262, 21.11.2024.
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Forschung › Peer-Review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways
AU - Schwaab, Jonas
AU - Hauser, Mathias
AU - Lamboll, Robin D.
AU - Beusch, Lea
AU - Gudmundsson, Lukas
AU - Quilcaille, Yann
AU - Lejeune, Quentin
AU - Schöngart, Sarah
AU - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
AU - Nath, Shruti
AU - Rogelj, Joeri
AU - Nicholls, Zebedee
AU - Seneviratne, Sonia I.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.
PY - 2024/11/21
Y1 - 2024/11/21
N2 - Due to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded – at least temporarily – in the 21 st century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood. Earth System Model climate projections are only available for a very limited number of overshoot pathways, thereby preventing comprehensive analysis of their impacts. Here, we address this issue by presenting a novel dataset of spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways. The dataset was created using the FaIR and MESMER emulators. First, FaIR was employed to translate ten different emission scenarios, including seven that are characterised by overshoot, into a large ensemble of forced global mean temperatures. These global mean temperatures were then converted into stochastic ensembles of local annual temperature fields using MESMER. To ensure an optimal tradeoff between accurate characterization of the ensemble spread and storage requirements for large ensembles, this procedure was accompanied by testing the sensitivity of sample quantiles to different ensemble sizes. The resulting dataset offers the unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including the timing and magnitude of temperature thresholds exceedance.
AB - Due to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded – at least temporarily – in the 21 st century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood. Earth System Model climate projections are only available for a very limited number of overshoot pathways, thereby preventing comprehensive analysis of their impacts. Here, we address this issue by presenting a novel dataset of spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways. The dataset was created using the FaIR and MESMER emulators. First, FaIR was employed to translate ten different emission scenarios, including seven that are characterised by overshoot, into a large ensemble of forced global mean temperatures. These global mean temperatures were then converted into stochastic ensembles of local annual temperature fields using MESMER. To ensure an optimal tradeoff between accurate characterization of the ensemble spread and storage requirements for large ensembles, this procedure was accompanied by testing the sensitivity of sample quantiles to different ensemble sizes. The resulting dataset offers the unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including the timing and magnitude of temperature thresholds exceedance.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85209717268&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41597-024-04122-1
DO - 10.1038/s41597-024-04122-1
M3 - Article
VL - 11
JO - Scientific data
JF - Scientific data
SN - 2052-4463
IS - 1
M1 - 1262
ER -