Details
| Translated title of the contribution | Care supply projections as a building block of evidence-based health services planning |
|---|---|
| Original language | German |
| Pages (from-to) | 45-54 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen |
| Volume | 162 |
| Early online date | 12 Apr 2021 |
| Publication status | Published - May 2021 |
Abstract
Introduction: As part of the measures to combat the shortage of general practitioners (GPs) particularly in rural areas, health services planning is becoming increasingly important. Methods: This paper shows how the quality of health services planning can be improved by combining population forecasts and physician number forecasts based on the cohort component method. On the basis of already available data (population data and doctors’ registers), developments in the levels of care supply can be predicted on a small regional scale. The regional and temporal differentiation allows for early identification of specific needs for action. However, it is important to consider limitations in the interpretation of results. Results: The example of Lower Saxony shows that by 2035 a decline of more than 20% in the number of GPs is expected. At the same time, regions are affected to varying degrees, and even within the more vulnerable rural areas there are heterogeneous developments which require regionally adapted responses. Conclusion: The greater the gap between supply and demand, the more important high-quality planning for efficient allocation of health services becomes. Against this background, care supply projections can serve as a useful building block of evidence-based care planning.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Medicine(all)
- Medicine (miscellaneous)
- Social Sciences(all)
- Education
- Medicine(all)
- Health Policy
Sustainable Development Goals
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In: Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen, Vol. 162, 05.2021, p. 45-54.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Versorgungsgradprognosen als Baustein einer evidenzbasierten Versorgungsplanung
AU - Thomsen, Stephan L.
AU - Ingwersen, Kai
AU - Weilage, Insa
PY - 2021/5
Y1 - 2021/5
N2 - Introduction: As part of the measures to combat the shortage of general practitioners (GPs) particularly in rural areas, health services planning is becoming increasingly important. Methods: This paper shows how the quality of health services planning can be improved by combining population forecasts and physician number forecasts based on the cohort component method. On the basis of already available data (population data and doctors’ registers), developments in the levels of care supply can be predicted on a small regional scale. The regional and temporal differentiation allows for early identification of specific needs for action. However, it is important to consider limitations in the interpretation of results. Results: The example of Lower Saxony shows that by 2035 a decline of more than 20% in the number of GPs is expected. At the same time, regions are affected to varying degrees, and even within the more vulnerable rural areas there are heterogeneous developments which require regionally adapted responses. Conclusion: The greater the gap between supply and demand, the more important high-quality planning for efficient allocation of health services becomes. Against this background, care supply projections can serve as a useful building block of evidence-based care planning.
AB - Introduction: As part of the measures to combat the shortage of general practitioners (GPs) particularly in rural areas, health services planning is becoming increasingly important. Methods: This paper shows how the quality of health services planning can be improved by combining population forecasts and physician number forecasts based on the cohort component method. On the basis of already available data (population data and doctors’ registers), developments in the levels of care supply can be predicted on a small regional scale. The regional and temporal differentiation allows for early identification of specific needs for action. However, it is important to consider limitations in the interpretation of results. Results: The example of Lower Saxony shows that by 2035 a decline of more than 20% in the number of GPs is expected. At the same time, regions are affected to varying degrees, and even within the more vulnerable rural areas there are heterogeneous developments which require regionally adapted responses. Conclusion: The greater the gap between supply and demand, the more important high-quality planning for efficient allocation of health services becomes. Against this background, care supply projections can serve as a useful building block of evidence-based care planning.
KW - Evidence-based health care
KW - General practitioners
KW - Health services planning
KW - Health services research
KW - Labour requirements
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103948522&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.zefq.2021.02.002
DO - 10.1016/j.zefq.2021.02.002
M3 - Artikel
C2 - 33849805
AN - SCOPUS:85103948522
VL - 162
SP - 45
EP - 54
JO - Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen
JF - Zeitschrift fur Evidenz, Fortbildung und Qualitat im Gesundheitswesen
SN - 1865-9217
ER -