Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Seiten (von - bis) | 110-127 |
| Seitenumfang | 18 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics |
| Jahrgang | 14 |
| Ausgabenummer | 1 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 6 Juli 2021 |
Abstract
Models not only represent but may also influence their targets in important ways. While models' abilities to influence outcomes has been studied in the context of economic models, often under the label ‘per-formativity', we argue that this phenomenon also pertains to epidemiological models, such as those used for forecasting the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. After identifying three ways in which a model by the Covid-19 Response Team at Imperial College London (Ferguson et al. 2020) may have influenced scientific advice, policy, and individual responses, we consider the implications of epidemiological models' performative capacities. We argue, first, that performativity may impair models' ability to successfully predict the course of an epidemic; but second, that it may provide an additional sense in which these models can be successful, namely by changing the course of an epidemic.
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Geisteswissenschaftliche Fächer (insg.)
- Philosophie
- Volkswirtschaftslehre, Ökonometrie und Finanzen (insg.)
- Volkswirtschaftslehre, Ökonometrie und Finanzen (sonstige)
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in: Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics, Jahrgang 14, Nr. 1, 06.07.2021, S. 110-127.
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Forschung › Peer-Review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Three Ways in Which Pandemic Models May Perform a Pandemic
AU - White, Lucie Alexandra
AU - Khosrowi Djen-Gheschlaghi, Donal
AU - Frisch, Mathias
N1 - Funding Information: AUTHORS’ NOTE: The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for their comprehensive and insightful feedback. Philippe van Basshuysen, Lucie White, and Mathias Frisch gratefully acknowledge the support of the Volkswagen Foundation.
PY - 2021/7/6
Y1 - 2021/7/6
N2 - Models not only represent but may also influence their targets in important ways. While models' abilities to influence outcomes has been studied in the context of economic models, often under the label ‘per-formativity', we argue that this phenomenon also pertains to epidemiological models, such as those used for forecasting the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. After identifying three ways in which a model by the Covid-19 Response Team at Imperial College London (Ferguson et al. 2020) may have influenced scientific advice, policy, and individual responses, we consider the implications of epidemiological models' performative capacities. We argue, first, that performativity may impair models' ability to successfully predict the course of an epidemic; but second, that it may provide an additional sense in which these models can be successful, namely by changing the course of an epidemic.
AB - Models not only represent but may also influence their targets in important ways. While models' abilities to influence outcomes has been studied in the context of economic models, often under the label ‘per-formativity', we argue that this phenomenon also pertains to epidemiological models, such as those used for forecasting the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. After identifying three ways in which a model by the Covid-19 Response Team at Imperial College London (Ferguson et al. 2020) may have influenced scientific advice, policy, and individual responses, we consider the implications of epidemiological models' performative capacities. We argue, first, that performativity may impair models' ability to successfully predict the course of an epidemic; but second, that it may provide an additional sense in which these models can be successful, namely by changing the course of an epidemic.
KW - Covid-19
KW - epidemiological models
KW - model evaluation
KW - performativity
KW - prediction
KW - success
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85112614488&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.23941/EJPE.V14I1.582
DO - 10.23941/EJPE.V14I1.582
M3 - Article
VL - 14
SP - 110
EP - 127
JO - Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics
JF - Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics
IS - 1
ER -