The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Autorschaft

  • Tobias Korn
  • Henry Stemmler

Organisationseinheiten

Externe Organisationen

  • Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg
  • Weltbank
Forschungs-netzwerk anzeigen

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer103376
FachzeitschriftJournal of development economics
Jahrgang172
Frühes Online-Datum26 Sept. 2024
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Jan. 2025

Abstract

This paper examines the lasting impact of civil conflicts on bilateral trade flows and the subsequent implications for economic recovery. Utilizing a novel estimation approach based on the structural gravity model of international trade, we demonstrate that importers shift their trade preferences away from exporters involved in civil conflicts. This effect persists even after the conflict has been resolved, as countries solidify their relocation decisions by reducing bilateral trade costs with alternative trading partners through Preferential Trade Agreements. Notably, the persistent trade relocation is more pronounced in the manufacturing sector, while it does not occur in the fuels sector. Our findings underscore the significance of supportive trade policies as effective tools for assisting nations in recovering from episodes of political violence. Furthermore, our estimation approach can be adapted to investigate the impacts of other unilateral shocks, such as natural disasters, or to analyze various bilateral dependent variables, including migration.

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The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict. / Korn, Tobias; Stemmler, Henry.
in: Journal of development economics, Jahrgang 172, 103376, 01.2025.

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Korn T, Stemmler H. The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict. Journal of development economics. 2025 Jan;172:103376. Epub 2024 Sep 26. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103376
Korn, Tobias ; Stemmler, Henry. / The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict. in: Journal of development economics. 2025 ; Jahrgang 172.
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