Rooftop PV Potential Determined by Backward Ray Tracing: A Case Study for the German Regions of Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Autoren

  • Marlon Schlemminger
  • Dennis Bredemeier
  • Alexander Mahner
  • Raphael Niepelt
  • Michael H Breitner
  • Rolf Brendel

Externe Organisationen

  • Institut für Solarenergieforschung GmbH (ISFH)
Forschungs-netzwerk anzeigen

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
FachzeitschriftProgress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications
Frühes Online-Datum18 Sept. 2024
PublikationsstatusElektronisch veröffentlicht (E-Pub) - 18 Sept. 2024

Abstract

Photovoltaics (PV) on building rooftops is a major contributor to the decarbonization of energy systems. We simulate the PV energy yield potential for 2.5 million individual roofs in three German regions. We cumulate the results for each single roof to calculate the cost-potential curves for the three cities Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover. These curves give the amount of electricity that can be generated at less than a given cost per kWh. We find that these curves have the shape of a hockey stick. Neglecting the dependence of PV investment on building size and thus on the system sizes causes largely different cost-potential curves that differ by 11%–18% for flat roofs due to their heterogeneous building size distribution. The cost-potential curves of the three cities are very similar when appropriately normalized, for example, by the local solar irradiation and the settlement area of the city, despite substantial variations in population density. This allows for an extrapolation of our results. For Germany, we reveal an upper limit for the total electricity generation from rooftop PV of 762 TWh/a with cost as low as 6.9 ct/kWh without accounting for area losses due to chimneys, air conditioning systems, and so forth. We estimate the actual potential to be at least half of that figure.

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Zitieren

Rooftop PV Potential Determined by Backward Ray Tracing: A Case Study for the German Regions of Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover. / Schlemminger, Marlon; Bredemeier, Dennis; Mahner, Alexander et al.
in: Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 18.09.2024.

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Download
@article{74fb213e4a964722a729b362c7ea0282,
title = "Rooftop PV Potential Determined by Backward Ray Tracing: A Case Study for the German Regions of Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover",
abstract = "Photovoltaics (PV) on building rooftops is a major contributor to the decarbonization of energy systems. We simulate the PV energy yield potential for 2.5 million individual roofs in three German regions. We cumulate the results for each single roof to calculate the cost-potential curves for the three cities Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover. These curves give the amount of electricity that can be generated at less than a given cost per kWh. We find that these curves have the shape of a hockey stick. Neglecting the dependence of PV investment on building size and thus on the system sizes causes largely different cost-potential curves that differ by 11%–18% for flat roofs due to their heterogeneous building size distribution. The cost-potential curves of the three cities are very similar when appropriately normalized, for example, by the local solar irradiation and the settlement area of the city, despite substantial variations in population density. This allows for an extrapolation of our results. For Germany, we reveal an upper limit for the total electricity generation from rooftop PV of 762 TWh/a with cost as low as 6.9 ct/kWh without accounting for area losses due to chimneys, air conditioning systems, and so forth. We estimate the actual potential to be at least half of that figure.",
keywords = "cost-potential curves, potential analysis, ray tracing, rooftop photovoltaics",
author = "Marlon Schlemminger and Dennis Bredemeier and Alexander Mahner and Raphael Niepelt and Michael H Breitner and Rolf Brendel",
note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 The Author(s). Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",
year = "2024",
month = sep,
day = "18",
doi = "10.1002/pip.3844",
language = "English",
journal = "Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications",
issn = "1062-7995",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",

}

Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Rooftop PV Potential Determined by Backward Ray Tracing

T2 - A Case Study for the German Regions of Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover

AU - Schlemminger, Marlon

AU - Bredemeier, Dennis

AU - Mahner, Alexander

AU - Niepelt, Raphael

AU - Breitner, Michael H

AU - Brendel, Rolf

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Author(s). Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2024/9/18

Y1 - 2024/9/18

N2 - Photovoltaics (PV) on building rooftops is a major contributor to the decarbonization of energy systems. We simulate the PV energy yield potential for 2.5 million individual roofs in three German regions. We cumulate the results for each single roof to calculate the cost-potential curves for the three cities Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover. These curves give the amount of electricity that can be generated at less than a given cost per kWh. We find that these curves have the shape of a hockey stick. Neglecting the dependence of PV investment on building size and thus on the system sizes causes largely different cost-potential curves that differ by 11%–18% for flat roofs due to their heterogeneous building size distribution. The cost-potential curves of the three cities are very similar when appropriately normalized, for example, by the local solar irradiation and the settlement area of the city, despite substantial variations in population density. This allows for an extrapolation of our results. For Germany, we reveal an upper limit for the total electricity generation from rooftop PV of 762 TWh/a with cost as low as 6.9 ct/kWh without accounting for area losses due to chimneys, air conditioning systems, and so forth. We estimate the actual potential to be at least half of that figure.

AB - Photovoltaics (PV) on building rooftops is a major contributor to the decarbonization of energy systems. We simulate the PV energy yield potential for 2.5 million individual roofs in three German regions. We cumulate the results for each single roof to calculate the cost-potential curves for the three cities Berlin, Cologne, and Hanover. These curves give the amount of electricity that can be generated at less than a given cost per kWh. We find that these curves have the shape of a hockey stick. Neglecting the dependence of PV investment on building size and thus on the system sizes causes largely different cost-potential curves that differ by 11%–18% for flat roofs due to their heterogeneous building size distribution. The cost-potential curves of the three cities are very similar when appropriately normalized, for example, by the local solar irradiation and the settlement area of the city, despite substantial variations in population density. This allows for an extrapolation of our results. For Germany, we reveal an upper limit for the total electricity generation from rooftop PV of 762 TWh/a with cost as low as 6.9 ct/kWh without accounting for area losses due to chimneys, air conditioning systems, and so forth. We estimate the actual potential to be at least half of that figure.

KW - cost-potential curves

KW - potential analysis

KW - ray tracing

KW - rooftop photovoltaics

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85204072960&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/pip.3844

DO - 10.1002/pip.3844

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85204072960

JO - Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications

JF - Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications

SN - 1062-7995

ER -

Von denselben Autoren