Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Autorschaft

  • Lena Dräger
  • Klaus Gründler
  • Niklas Potrafke

Externe Organisationen

  • Münchener Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wirtschaftswissenschaft - CESifo GmbH
  • Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel (IfW)
  • Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU)
  • Universität Kassel
  • ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München e. V.
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Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer104029
Seitenumfang16
FachzeitschriftJournal of international economics
Jahrgang153
Frühes Online-Datum2 Dez. 2024
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Jan. 2025

Abstract

How do global supply-side shocks influence macroeconomic expectations? We exploit the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock, which translated into a momentous supply-side shock, on inflation expectations. Collecting a unique survey among tenured economics professors in Germany, we find sizable effects on inflation expectations and monetary policy recommendations. A comparison with a representative sample of households shows that experts’ expectations adjust faster and to a larger degree to the shock. Text analyses on open-ended questions reveal that the effects are caused by supply-side models underlying experts’ formation of expectations.

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Zitieren

Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. / Dräger, Lena; Gründler, Klaus; Potrafke, Niklas.
in: Journal of international economics, Jahrgang 153, 104029, 01.2025.

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Dräger L, Gründler K, Potrafke N. Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Journal of international economics. 2025 Jan;153:104029. Epub 2024 Dez 2. doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029
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