Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Seitenumfang | 21 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties |
| Publikationsstatus | Elektronisch veröffentlicht (E-Pub) - 6 Juni 2025 |
Abstract
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
- Sozialwissenschaften (insg.)
- Soziologie und Politikwissenschaften
Zitieren
- Standard
- Harvard
- Apa
- Vancouver
- BibTex
- RIS
in: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 06.06.2025.
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Forschung › Peer-Review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Electoral closeness and voter turnout in presidential run-off elections
AU - Köker, Philipp
AU - Springer, Frederik
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
PY - 2025/6/6
Y1 - 2025/6/6
N2 - This article presents the first study of the effects of electoral closeness on voter turnout in presidential run-off elections. Closeness between the leading candidates in the first round should increase turnout in the run-off. Furthermore, since presidential contests are always important elections with high levels of media attention, the direct effect of closeness should be amplified through several mutually reinforcing indirect mechanisms. We test our propositions on an original data set of all popular presidential elections in 16 European democracies, 1965-2024. In line with our expectations, a smaller first-round margin between frontrunner and runner-up is associated with a significant increase in turnout. In contrast, the presence of a strong third-placed candidate decreases it. Furthermore, we show that closeness measured through polls between rounds can explain additional variance in the data. Finally, our analysis of individual elections in five countries suggests further important avenues for research on turnout and double-ballot systems.
AB - This article presents the first study of the effects of electoral closeness on voter turnout in presidential run-off elections. Closeness between the leading candidates in the first round should increase turnout in the run-off. Furthermore, since presidential contests are always important elections with high levels of media attention, the direct effect of closeness should be amplified through several mutually reinforcing indirect mechanisms. We test our propositions on an original data set of all popular presidential elections in 16 European democracies, 1965-2024. In line with our expectations, a smaller first-round margin between frontrunner and runner-up is associated with a significant increase in turnout. In contrast, the presence of a strong third-placed candidate decreases it. Furthermore, we show that closeness measured through polls between rounds can explain additional variance in the data. Finally, our analysis of individual elections in five countries suggests further important avenues for research on turnout and double-ballot systems.
KW - Calculus of voting
KW - closeness
KW - presidential elections
KW - runoff elections
KW - turnout
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105007517003&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/17457289.2025.2513300
DO - 10.1080/17457289.2025.2513300
M3 - Article
JO - Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
JF - Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
SN - 1745-7289
ER -