A novel framework for operational infeasibility assessment of active distribution systems using improved quantile polynomial chaos expansion

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Autorschaft

  • Sel Ly
  • Kapil Chauhan
  • Tan Minh Nguyen
  • Franz Erich Wolter
  • Hung Dinh Nguyen

Externe Organisationen

  • Nanyang Technological University (NTU)
  • Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology
  • National University of Singapore
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Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer102006
FachzeitschriftSustainable Energy, Grids and Networks
Jahrgang44
Frühes Online-Datum23 Okt. 2025
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Dez. 2025

Abstract

This article presents an advanced two-stage statistical framework for operational infeasibility analysis (OIA) in active distribution systems operating under high uncertainties. In Stage-I, enhanced Mean and Multiple Quantile Lite-Polynomial Chaos Expansions (IMQ-Lite-PCEs) are proposed as robust meta-modeling tools for uncertainty quantification. In Stage-II, the IMQ-Lite-PCEs are leveraged to extract comprehensive statistical insights, enabling accurate estimations of key metrics such as means, variances, confidence intervals, and conditional distributions of system states, facilitating informed decision-making. The efficacy of the proposed method (PM) is rigorously validated through comparisons with state-of-the-art PCE variants for uncertainty quantification in renewable energy resource (RES)- and electric vehicle (EV)-dominated power systems. The results underline the superior accuracy of the PM, with L1 -relative errors as low as 0.22 %, 0.19 %, 0.16 %, 0.12 %, and 0.43 % for state estimations on the IEEE 33-, −69, −85, 141-, and unbalanced three-phase 37-bus systems, respectively. Moreover, the PM demonstrates exceptional capabilities in probabilistic and classification analyses, achieving 98.27 %, 98.72 %, 98.63 %, and 98.95 % classification accuracy for identifying nodal voltage violations and 91.06 %, 99.58 %, 92.94 %, and 93.11 % accuracy for detecting overloaded line power flows in the IEEE −33, −69, −85, and 141-bus networks, respectively. Additionally, comparative analysis against low-rank approximation methods, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Deep Sparse GPR underscores the PM’s robust performance in handling complex probabilistic computations and classification tasks.

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A novel framework for operational infeasibility assessment of active distribution systems using improved quantile polynomial chaos expansion. / Ly, Sel; Chauhan, Kapil; Nguyen, Tan Minh et al.
in: Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks, Jahrgang 44, 102006, 12.2025.

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelForschungPeer-Review

Ly, S., Chauhan, K., Nguyen, T. M., Wolter, F. E., & Nguyen, H. D. (2025). A novel framework for operational infeasibility assessment of active distribution systems using improved quantile polynomial chaos expansion. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks, 44, Artikel 102006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segan.2025.102006
Ly S, Chauhan K, Nguyen TM, Wolter FE, Nguyen HD. A novel framework for operational infeasibility assessment of active distribution systems using improved quantile polynomial chaos expansion. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks. 2025 Dez;44:102006. Epub 2025 Okt 23. doi: 10.1016/j.segan.2025.102006
Ly, Sel ; Chauhan, Kapil ; Nguyen, Tan Minh et al. / A novel framework for operational infeasibility assessment of active distribution systems using improved quantile polynomial chaos expansion. in: Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks. 2025 ; Jahrgang 44.
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abstract = "This article presents an advanced two-stage statistical framework for operational infeasibility analysis (OIA) in active distribution systems operating under high uncertainties. In Stage-I, enhanced Mean and Multiple Quantile Lite-Polynomial Chaos Expansions (IMQ-Lite-PCEs) are proposed as robust meta-modeling tools for uncertainty quantification. In Stage-II, the IMQ-Lite-PCEs are leveraged to extract comprehensive statistical insights, enabling accurate estimations of key metrics such as means, variances, confidence intervals, and conditional distributions of system states, facilitating informed decision-making. The efficacy of the proposed method (PM) is rigorously validated through comparisons with state-of-the-art PCE variants for uncertainty quantification in renewable energy resource (RES)- and electric vehicle (EV)-dominated power systems. The results underline the superior accuracy of the PM, with L1 -relative errors as low as 0.22 %, 0.19 %, 0.16 %, 0.12 %, and 0.43 % for state estimations on the IEEE 33-, −69, −85, 141-, and unbalanced three-phase 37-bus systems, respectively. Moreover, the PM demonstrates exceptional capabilities in probabilistic and classification analyses, achieving 98.27 %, 98.72 %, 98.63 %, and 98.95 % classification accuracy for identifying nodal voltage violations and 91.06 %, 99.58 %, 92.94 %, and 93.11 % accuracy for detecting overloaded line power flows in the IEEE −33, −69, −85, and 141-bus networks, respectively. Additionally, comparative analysis against low-rank approximation methods, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Deep Sparse GPR underscores the PM{\textquoteright}s robust performance in handling complex probabilistic computations and classification tasks.",
keywords = "Electric vehicle, Meta-modeling, Operational infeasibility, Renewable energy management, Uncertainty quantification",
author = "Sel Ly and Kapil Chauhan and Nguyen, {Tan Minh} and Wolter, {Franz Erich} and Nguyen, {Hung Dinh}",
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T1 - A novel framework for operational infeasibility assessment of active distribution systems using improved quantile polynomial chaos expansion

AU - Ly, Sel

AU - Chauhan, Kapil

AU - Nguyen, Tan Minh

AU - Wolter, Franz Erich

AU - Nguyen, Hung Dinh

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2025 Elsevier Ltd.

PY - 2025/12

Y1 - 2025/12

N2 - This article presents an advanced two-stage statistical framework for operational infeasibility analysis (OIA) in active distribution systems operating under high uncertainties. In Stage-I, enhanced Mean and Multiple Quantile Lite-Polynomial Chaos Expansions (IMQ-Lite-PCEs) are proposed as robust meta-modeling tools for uncertainty quantification. In Stage-II, the IMQ-Lite-PCEs are leveraged to extract comprehensive statistical insights, enabling accurate estimations of key metrics such as means, variances, confidence intervals, and conditional distributions of system states, facilitating informed decision-making. The efficacy of the proposed method (PM) is rigorously validated through comparisons with state-of-the-art PCE variants for uncertainty quantification in renewable energy resource (RES)- and electric vehicle (EV)-dominated power systems. The results underline the superior accuracy of the PM, with L1 -relative errors as low as 0.22 %, 0.19 %, 0.16 %, 0.12 %, and 0.43 % for state estimations on the IEEE 33-, −69, −85, 141-, and unbalanced three-phase 37-bus systems, respectively. Moreover, the PM demonstrates exceptional capabilities in probabilistic and classification analyses, achieving 98.27 %, 98.72 %, 98.63 %, and 98.95 % classification accuracy for identifying nodal voltage violations and 91.06 %, 99.58 %, 92.94 %, and 93.11 % accuracy for detecting overloaded line power flows in the IEEE −33, −69, −85, and 141-bus networks, respectively. Additionally, comparative analysis against low-rank approximation methods, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Deep Sparse GPR underscores the PM’s robust performance in handling complex probabilistic computations and classification tasks.

AB - This article presents an advanced two-stage statistical framework for operational infeasibility analysis (OIA) in active distribution systems operating under high uncertainties. In Stage-I, enhanced Mean and Multiple Quantile Lite-Polynomial Chaos Expansions (IMQ-Lite-PCEs) are proposed as robust meta-modeling tools for uncertainty quantification. In Stage-II, the IMQ-Lite-PCEs are leveraged to extract comprehensive statistical insights, enabling accurate estimations of key metrics such as means, variances, confidence intervals, and conditional distributions of system states, facilitating informed decision-making. The efficacy of the proposed method (PM) is rigorously validated through comparisons with state-of-the-art PCE variants for uncertainty quantification in renewable energy resource (RES)- and electric vehicle (EV)-dominated power systems. The results underline the superior accuracy of the PM, with L1 -relative errors as low as 0.22 %, 0.19 %, 0.16 %, 0.12 %, and 0.43 % for state estimations on the IEEE 33-, −69, −85, 141-, and unbalanced three-phase 37-bus systems, respectively. Moreover, the PM demonstrates exceptional capabilities in probabilistic and classification analyses, achieving 98.27 %, 98.72 %, 98.63 %, and 98.95 % classification accuracy for identifying nodal voltage violations and 91.06 %, 99.58 %, 92.94 %, and 93.11 % accuracy for detecting overloaded line power flows in the IEEE −33, −69, −85, and 141-bus networks, respectively. Additionally, comparative analysis against low-rank approximation methods, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Deep Sparse GPR underscores the PM’s robust performance in handling complex probabilistic computations and classification tasks.

KW - Electric vehicle

KW - Meta-modeling

KW - Operational infeasibility

KW - Renewable energy management

KW - Uncertainty quantification

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VL - 44

JO - Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks

JF - Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks

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