TY - JOUR

T1 - A model-based assessment of the environmental impact of land-use change across scales in Southern Amazonia

AU - Schaldach, Rüdiger

AU - Meurer, Katharina H.E.

AU - Jungkunst, Hermann F.

AU - Nendel, Claas

AU - Lakes, Tobia

AU - Gollnow, Florian

AU - Göpel, Jan

AU - Boy, Jens

AU - Guggenberger, Georg

AU - Strey, Robert

AU - Strey, Simone

AU - Berger, Thomas

AU - Gerold, Gerhard

AU - Schönenberg, Regine

AU - Böhner, Jürgen

AU - Schindewolf, Marcus

AU - Latynskiy, Evgeny

AU - Hampf, Anna

AU - Parker, Phillip S.

AU - Sentelhas, Paulo César

N1 - Funding information: This study was conducted in the framework of the integrated project CarBioCial funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the grant number 01LL0902K. We thank all involved stakeholders, farmers, and our Brazilian scientific colleagues for their support and CNPq, Embrapa, and FAPEMAT for co-funding of Brazilian counterpart projects. This study was conducted in the framework of the integrated project CarBioCial funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the grant number 01LL0902K. We thank all involved stakeholders, farmers, and our Brazilian scientific colleagues for their support and CNPq, Embrapa, and FAPEMAT for co-funding of Brazilian counterpart projects.

PY - 2017/11/22

Y1 - 2017/11/22

N2 - This article describes the design of a new model-based assessment framework to identify and analyse possible future trajectories of agricultural development and their environmental consequences within the states of Mato Grosso and Pará in Southern Amazonia, Brazil. The objective is to provide a tool for improving the information basis for scientists and policy makers regarding the effects of global change and national environmental policies on land-use change and the resulting impacts on the loss of natural vegetation, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, and soil erosion within the region. For this purpose, the framework combines the regional land-use models, LandSHIFT and alucR, the farm-level model, MPMAS, and the MONICA crop model, with a set of environmental impact models that are operating at the regional and watershed levels. As a first application of the framework, four scenarios with the time horizon 2030 were specified and analysed. Future land-use change will strongly depend on the interplay between the production of agricultural commodities, the agricultural intensification in terms of increasing crop yields and pasture biomass productivity, and the enforcement of environmental laws and policies. On the regional level, the scenarios with the highest increase in agricultural production in combination with weak law enforcement (Trend and Illegal Intensification) generated the highest losses in natural vegetation due to the expansion of agricultural area as well as the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Also, at the watershed level, these scenarios are characterised by the highest changes in river discharge and soil erosion that might lead to a further decline in soil fertility in the long term. Moreover, the analysis of the Sustainable Development scenario indicates that a shift in agricultural production patterns from livestock to crop cultivation, together with effective law enforcement, can effectively reduce land-use change and its negative effects on the environment. With the scenario analysis, we could illustrate that our assessment framework is capable to provide a large variety of valuable information to support the development of future land-use strategies in the study region.

AB - This article describes the design of a new model-based assessment framework to identify and analyse possible future trajectories of agricultural development and their environmental consequences within the states of Mato Grosso and Pará in Southern Amazonia, Brazil. The objective is to provide a tool for improving the information basis for scientists and policy makers regarding the effects of global change and national environmental policies on land-use change and the resulting impacts on the loss of natural vegetation, greenhouse gas emissions, hydrological processes, and soil erosion within the region. For this purpose, the framework combines the regional land-use models, LandSHIFT and alucR, the farm-level model, MPMAS, and the MONICA crop model, with a set of environmental impact models that are operating at the regional and watershed levels. As a first application of the framework, four scenarios with the time horizon 2030 were specified and analysed. Future land-use change will strongly depend on the interplay between the production of agricultural commodities, the agricultural intensification in terms of increasing crop yields and pasture biomass productivity, and the enforcement of environmental laws and policies. On the regional level, the scenarios with the highest increase in agricultural production in combination with weak law enforcement (Trend and Illegal Intensification) generated the highest losses in natural vegetation due to the expansion of agricultural area as well as the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Also, at the watershed level, these scenarios are characterised by the highest changes in river discharge and soil erosion that might lead to a further decline in soil fertility in the long term. Moreover, the analysis of the Sustainable Development scenario indicates that a shift in agricultural production patterns from livestock to crop cultivation, together with effective law enforcement, can effectively reduce land-use change and its negative effects on the environment. With the scenario analysis, we could illustrate that our assessment framework is capable to provide a large variety of valuable information to support the development of future land-use strategies in the study region.

KW - Assessment framework

KW - Environmental impact

KW - Land-use change

KW - Southern Amazonia

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85034647983&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10113-017-1244-z

DO - 10.1007/s10113-017-1244-z

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85034647983

VL - 18

SP - 161

EP - 173

JO - Regional environmental change

JF - Regional environmental change

SN - 1436-3798

IS - 1

ER -